Ken Long Daily Trading Plan 20240629

Education

Introduction

Morning Review

Good morning, K Tois Capital. We are here to review the weekend strategy report for June 29th, 2024.

Market Conditions

  • Current State: We are in bullish normal conditions but longer-term overbought.
  • Recent Activity: There was a slight pullback in the last couple of days with increasing volatility to the downside, though not dangerous yet.
  • Outlook: We are in a risk-off condition suggesting a large breakout from the compound critical state in which we ended the week.

New Holdings

Blended Monthly Rebalancing

  • ETF 2: Increases its allocation by 10% to half-exposed.
  • Regression Line Fractal Framework: All systems are favorable.
    • RL30 and RL10: Comfortably postured.
    • 90 and 270: Good shape; above 525.

Major Question

How will the world process the results of the presidential debate? While it affected morale, its market impact is uncertain.

Short-Term Market Posture

  • 3-Day and 9-Day: Poised for consolidation. This compound critical state suggests a strong move in either direction is possible.
  • 150-Day Look Back: We’re in the top of the 150-day range, middle of the 30-day range, and middle of the 10-day range.
  • Caution: A sharp move in either direction from the 10-day range could signal significant changes.

Tactical Trading

Let's delve deeper into actionable insights:

Sector Analysis

  • Technology: Leading the way.
  • S&P & Dow: US dominating.
  • ETF 13 & ETF 22: Provides deeper insights with additional sector-specific focus.
  • ETF 32: Adds 10 more world market indices to ETF 22 symbols.

Large Caps and Weakness

  • Notable Moves: Apple had a strong month; Nike and Walgreens are of interest due to recent declines.
  • Extreme Conditions: Both positive and negative extremes suggest significant possible moves.
  • S&P vs. EFA: S&P outperforms EFA.
  • US Markets: NASDAQ leads, followed by S&P, midcaps, and small caps.
  • Global Markets: Japan and Latin America show strength; look out for significant moves in these areas.

Scanning for Trade Opportunities

Silver & Technology

  • Silver: Strong, with potential for reinforcement.
  • Technology (XLK): Gaining strength, now a prime target.
  • S&P 500: Solid, with good general health.

Examining Specific ETFs

  • Top ETFs: Favorable for both liquidity and volatility.
  • Positions: Silver, Brazil, Regional Banks, Gold Miners, Biotech, Semiconductors.

Trading Patterns

  • AutoFramer: Identifies the most favorable reward-to-risk ratios.
  • Large-Cap Analysis: Pullbacks in notable stocks like Nvidia may be buying opportunities.

Weekly Trading Plans

Tactical Reports and Strategy

  • Visual Trading: Utilize OR10, anchored VWAPs, regression lines, and high/low ranges for actionable insights.
  • Automated Reports: Set up based on volatility, liquidity, and reward-to-risk ratios.

Real-Time Examples

  • Intraday Harvesting: Detailed reviews of specific trades, including Nvidia and Brazil, demonstrating trade patterns and risk management.

Keywords

  • Bullish Conditions
  • Long Term Overbought
  • Increasing Volatility
  • Risk-Off Conditions
  • Compound Critical State
  • Blended Monthly Rebalancing
  • Regression Line Fractal Framework
  • Presidential Debate Impact
  • Consolidation
  • Sector Analysis
  • Technology Leadership
  • ETF 13, ETF 22, ETF 32
  • Large Caps
  • Market Indices
  • Trading Patterns
  • AutoFramer
  • Tactical Trading

FAQ

What are the current market conditions?

The market is in bullish normal conditions with an overbought long-term outlook and increased short-term volatility.

What sectors are currently leading?

The technology sector is leading, followed by S&P and Dow, with a notable focus on US markets.

How can I identify trade opportunities?

Using tools like AutoFramer, monitoring regression line fractal frameworks, and keeping an eye on extreme conditions in large caps can help identify significant trade opportunities.

What should I expect for short-term trading?

Expect consolidation with potential for strong moves in either direction. Keeping an eye on the 10-day range breakout is crucial for signals.

How did specific stocks like Nvidia perform recently?

Nvidia had a significant pullback, presenting a potential buying opportunity or signaling potential weakness. Use tactical setups based on high/low range and breakout points for precise trading.

How should I prepare for potential market impacts due to political events?

Monitor how the market processes results of events like presidential debates and adjust strategies based on changes in volatility and investor sentiment.