The Changing Nature of India China relations • Lt Gen Ravi Shankar (R)

Introduction

Namaskar, and welcome to P Guru's channel. Today, we delve into the evolving dynamics of the relationship between India and China with Lt Gen Ravi Shankar. The discussion addresses the potential shifts in strategy, communication channels—both overt and covert—and whether both nations are poised to reach some agreement. It seems there is a willingness from both sides to engage in dialogue.

General Shankar commented on the nuance of the relationship, suggesting there's a subtle shift occurring, influenced by various factors. Despite the daunting economic scale of China, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at around $ 17 trillion compared to India's roughly $ 4 trillion, he argued that overall power cannot be gauged solely by economic metrics. The gap between the two nations is narrowing, indicating India's rise while China's influence faces challenges.

A recent example highlighted by the General involved tariffs imposed by the United States as well as other nations such as Turkey and Malaysia, effectively pushing Chinese exports to a precarious position amid global resistance. Internally, China faces demographic issues, decreased consumption, and a struggling steel market. Aligning these observations, he reiterated how India is strategically positioned differently and is gaining momentum.

Recent statements from the Chinese state-run Global Times alluded to India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar as an impediment to Chinese investment in India, emphasizing a perceived internal lobbying effort. However, the article quickly vanished within 10 hours, raising questions about its implications and significance within the current geopolitical environment.

General Shankar conveyed a broader understanding of the shifting Chinese geopolitical landscape, indicating President Xi Jinping's recent changes in stance could signify a pivot towards a more conciliatory approach towards India. He outlined structural economic comparisons, emphasizing China's absence in future growth figures estimated for 2024 while India emerges stronger.

Noteworthy were the implications of India's military engagement with the United States, with recent treaties signed that deepen military-to-military ties and logistics arrangements—unprecedented for any country besides the US allies. The General underscored this as a critical engagement point which China views as detrimental.

In parallel, relations with neighboring countries like Malaysia exhibit significant shifts, given Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's toned-down rhetoric towards India, contrasting with previous years. This reflects an observable regional realignment favoring India.

The likelihood of upcoming elections in countries surrounding India was a focal point of discussion. General Shankar speculated that various internal dynamics in nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka would impact their relations with India. He reflected on the necessity for strategic patience in dealing with Bangladesh, while expressing optimism for Hindu national influence in future elections.

In conclusion, both countries seem poised on the brink of potential change, with India steadily asserting its position. The General stressed the importance of recognizing these developments and tracking the trajectory of both nations as they navigate their complex relationship.

Keywords

• India-China relations
• Economic power
• Geopolitical shifts
• Military agreements
• Tariffs
• Regional alignment
• Strategic patience
• External Affairs Minister

FAQ

Q1: What is the current state of India-China relations?
India and China are witnessing a subtle shift in their relationship, with both countries expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue.

Q2: What factors are influencing the changing dynamics?
Factors include significant economic challenges facing China, rising Indian influence, and political developments in neighboring countries.

Q3: How has China reacted to India's growing ties with the US?
China appears to recognize the strengthening military and diplomatic ties between India and the United States as a major concern.

Q4: Is there any indication of a shift in Chinese leadership strategy?
Observations suggest that President Xi Jinping may be adopting a more conciliatory approach following internal critiques of his leadership.

Q5: What does the future hold for India's regional relationships?
The upcoming elections in South Asian countries could significantly impact their relationships with India, signaling potential opportunities for renewed alignments.