Stanford ECON295/CS323 I 2024 I A World Without Work, Daniel Susskind

Introduction

Good afternoon! It is my pleasure to introduce Daniel Susskind, who is a research professor of Economics at King's College in London and a senior research associate at the Institute for Ethics and AI at Oxford University. He is the author of the acclaimed book "A World Without Work" and has recently published a new book titled "The Growth or Reckoning." Susskind has a wealth of experience, including serving as a Kennedy scholar at Harvard University and holding various roles in the British government.

Today, Susskind will discuss the themes of his work, including the changes in labor and the potential futures facing society in the face of advancing technology. He will delve into existing fears about job displacement due to automation and explore the history of these anxieties. Susskind will address the question of whether there will be enough well-paying work for everyone in the 21st century, highlighting the significance of discussing these concerns.

The Great Manure Crisis of the 1890s

Susskind begins his talk with a story about the Great Manure Crisis of the 1890s. In major cities like London and New York, horses were the primary means of transport, resulting in vast quantities of manure accumulating in the streets. This led to widespread anxiety among citizens about the overwhelming future filled with manure. However, this crisis was alleviated by the invention of the internal combustion engine in the late 19th century, leading to the rise of automobiles. This shift to cars and tractors meant that horses, once central to the economy, were sidelined, serving as an ominous metaphor for the impact of new technology on human labor.

The economist Wasil Leontief, who would win the Nobel Prize in 1973, offered a more unsettling interpretation: that the same advancements leading to the decline of horses could also drive humans out of work. As Susskind notes, today, approximately 30% of workers in both the U.S. and the UK believe their jobs may be replaced by machines. He emphasizes the importance of taking these fears seriously and proposes evaluating the implications of technological unemployment.

Historical Context of Automation Anxiety

Susskind explores automation anxiety throughout history, which is not a new phenomenon. Evidence shows that as technology advanced, fears arose that job loss would follow. While many protests arose during the Industrial Revolution as workers worried about being displaced, it was found that most displaced workers transitioned to new roles. Historical context indicates that while new technologies displaced specific jobs, they often complemented existing work, leading to new forms of employment rather than widespread unemployment.

Recent Technological Advancements

Susskind shifts his focus to the current technological landscape, highlighting that while machines have become increasingly capable, they still have limitations. AI, in particular, has captured the public's imagination, and while there is valid enthusiasm, it is crucial to understand the realities beneath the hype.

Susskind notes the progression of artificial intelligence since its first wave in the 1980s through significant moments, like IBM's Deep Blue beating chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997. Today, machines continually encroach on tasks that were once considered exclusive to humans—this "task encroachment" means that machines are gradually taking over more labor-intensive tasks.

The Future of Work and Technological Unemployment

As we analyze the potential futures with less work, Susskind posits three primary challenges:

1. Inequality: As more jobs are lost to automation, we must confront how to distribute wealth effectively. The traditional income distribution through work may no longer suffice, necessitating discussion about potential reforms like universal basic income or a "big state" intended for redistribution rather than production.

2. Power: Power dynamics could shift significantly, with large technology companies dominating the landscape and potentially leading to issues surrounding democracy, liberty, and social justice.

3. Meaning and Purpose: Work is not just a source of income but also provides individuals with purpose. As traditional roles decline, we must explore how to maintain a sense of direction and fulfillment in life beyond work.

Susskind wraps up by noting that while these challenges are daunting, we are fortunate to live in a time where technological advancements could potentially resolve the economic inequalities that have plagued humanity. Nonetheless, as our society moves forward, careful consideration must be given to how we shape technological progress to avoid creating a world with insufficient quality work, and address the challenges of inequality, power, and meaning.

Conclusion

Susskind's insights prompt us to reflect on the implications of technological advancements in the workforce and how we can navigate these shifts to create a more equitable and purposeful society.

Keywords

• Automation
• Inequality
• Job Displacement
• Technological Unemployment
• Artificial Intelligence
• Task Encroachment
• Meaning and Purpose
• Big State
• Distribution

FAQ

1. What was the Great Manure Crisis?

   • The Great Manure Crisis refers to the accumulation of manure from horses in major cities, which led to fears of pollution and an overwhelming future. The crisis ended with the advent of the automobile.

2. What is task encroachment?

   • Task encroachment is the gradual takeover of tasks once performed by humans by machines, indicating an ongoing challenge for workers in the labor market as technology advances.

3. What are the three main challenges anticipated in a world with less work?

   • The challenges include inequality, power dynamics with large tech companies, and the quest for meaning and purpose beyond paid work.

4. How might a big state address inequality?

   • A "big state" would play a larger role in redistributing wealth rather than solely focusing on production, potentially through measures like universal basic income.

5. What can we learn from past automation anxieties?

   • Historical evidence suggests that while new technologies displace jobs, they often create new ones by complementing existing roles rather than leading to significant long-term unemployment.